San Francisco Condo Market Trends

1/1/07 - 9/15/07

1/1/08 - 9/15/08

Analysis

Total Sales

56

58

Virtually no change in sales

Average $/sq.ft.

$758/sq.ft.

$891/sq.ft.

Within Nob Hill , values vary surprisingly widely due to specific location

Average Days on Market

63 days

63 days

A relatively high days-on-market figure, unchanged year to year

High Sale

$4,000,000

$4,625,000

Nob Hill penthouses garner very high prices & high $/sq.ft.

% of Sales Pending
within 30 days

34% at an average
of 104.2% of LP

36% at avg
of 102% of LP

About a third of those properties selling are going pending within 30 days at an average sales price over the asking price

Median Price: 2 BR/2 BA/Pkg

$835,000

$995,000

Prices in Nob Hill swing widely depending on specific sales in specific locations

Inventory for Sale (MSI)

5.4 months supply

4.8 months

As of 9/30/08 there were 19 condos or co-ops for sale with 4 under contract

1/1/07 - 9/15/07

1/1/08 - 9/15/08

Analysis

Total Sales

60

56

Small decrease in total sales

Average $/sq.ft.

$910/sq.ft.

$882/sq.ft.

Small decrease in average dollar per square foot

Average Days on Market

46 days

43 days

They are selling moderately quickly

High Sale

$6,750,000

$6,450,000

Some very expensive condos in Russian Hill

% of Sales Pending
within 30 days

40% at an average
of 106.6% of LP

39% at avg
of 101.9% of LP

About 40% go pending within 30 days, on average over the asking price.

Median Price: 2 BR/2 BA/Pkg

$1,125,000

$1,500,000

$/sq ft in both years for 2/2 condos averaged $907 - $914/sq ft.

Median Price: 3 BR Condos 

$1,850,000

$1,625,000

Only 11 - 13 sales of 3 BR condos in the respective periods of each year. 

Inventory for Sale (MSI)

2.5 months supply

2.1 months

Very low inventory - generally high demand

1/1/07 - 9/15/07

1/1/08 - 9/15/08

Analysis

Total Sales

56

26

New condo projects in 2007 translated into a much higher number of sales as compared to 2008.

Average $/sq.ft.

$777/sq.ft.

$771/sq.ft.

Virtually unchanged.

Average Days on Market

41 days

48 days

Moderate... growing slightly longer

High Sale

$2,550,000

$2,500,000

% of Sales Pending
within 30 days

48% at an average
of 101.7% of LP

45% at avg
of 99.3% of LP

About the same percentage going pending within 30 days, but a decrease in the sales price to list price percentage.

Median Price: 2 BR/2 BA/Pkg

$876,000

$805,000

For North Beach only.  New project sales in 2007 created a higher median price.

Inventory for Sale (MSI)

4.5 months supply

2.8 months

Inventory level currently relatively low.  As of 9/30/08 11 for sale, 4 in contract.

1/1/07 - 9/15/07

1/1/08 - 9/15/08

Analysis

Total Sales

11

22

Sales have doubled due to new projects coming on the market.

Average $/sq.ft.

$989/sq.ft.

$1070/sq.ft.

Very high $/sq.ft. as exemplified by projects such as the Ritz-Carlton Residences.

Average Days on Market

65 days

44 days

High Sale

$5,420,000

$3,021,000

% of Sales Pending
within 30 days

55% at an average
of 99.7% of LP

45% at avg
of 97.8% of LP

Almost half of sold condos go pending within 30 days at an average sales price slightly below list price

Inventory for Sale (MSI)

3.5 months supply

4.2 months

As of 9/30/08 there were 25 for sale with 6 under contract

1/1/07 - 9/15/07

1/1/08 - 9/15/08

Analysis

Total Sales

30

34

Slight increase in sales over the 8.5 month period.

Average $/sq.ft.

$738/sq.ft.

$731/sq.ft.

Virtually no change

Median Sales Price

$554,000

$522,500

For sales of all unit sizes; downtown condos relatively moderately priced.

Average Days on Market

45 days

53 days

Downtown condos taking a bit longer to sell than last year.

High Sale

$1,500,000

$1,373,000

% of Sales Pending
within 30 days

37% at an average
of 98% of LP

38% at avg
of 101.7% of LP

A little over a third of sales going pending within 30 days.

Inventory for Sale (MSI)

8.7 months supply

2.2 months

Inventory has contracted.  As of 9/30/08: 13 for sale, 6 in contract.

1/1/07 - 9/15/07

1/1/08 - 9/15/08

Analysis

Condo Sales

86

59

Sales have fallen year to yar, partly due to timing of new projects coming on market.  As an area, the VN corridor generates a relatively high # of sales.

Average $/sq.ft.

$697/sq.ft.

$664/sq.ft.

One of the more affordable areas for condos in District 8.

Average Days on Market

55 days

71 days

A relatively high days on market figure, and growing higher.

Median Sales Price

$572,500

$550,000

All unit sizes.  Many units sold here of smaller size, at moderate prices.

% of Sales Pending
within 30 days

37% at an average
of 98% of LP

38% at avg
of 101.7% of LP

Median Price: 2 BR/2 BA/Pkg

$772,000

$780,000

Median prices and average $/sq. ft. for 2/2 condos quite stable year to year.

# for sale / # under contract

32/4

36/9

MSI of 4 months as of 9/30/08 - a moderate level of inventory

1/1/07 - 9/15/07

1/1/08 - 9/15/08

Analysis

Condo Sales

138

121

Average $/sq.ft.

$855/sq.ft.

$838/sq.ft.

2% reduction in average dollar per square foot, probably statistically irrelevant.

Average Days on Market

59 days

72 days

Typically condos are taking longer to sell

Months supply / inventory

2.5 months

4.6 months

Inventory growing but still low against national MSI of approximately 11 months.

# of 2/2 Condo Sales

39

28

28% reduction in sales - generally condo and TIC sales have been hit harder than house sales in the market changes of the past year.

Median sales price for a 2/2 condo

$775,000

$775,000

no change in median sales price.

Average $/sq.ft. for a 2/2 condo

$721/sq. ft.

$651/sq. ft.

10% reduction in average $/sq. ft. (odd considering median price)

% of sales pending within 30 days

44% at an average of 100.5% of LP

50% at an average of 99.4% of LP

Half of condos accepting offers within 30 days at an average of just below asking price in 2008 YTD.

1/1/07 - 9/15/07

1/1/08 - 9/15/08

Analysis

Condo Sales

171

130

24% reduction in condo sales in SOMA

Average $/sq.ft.

$741/sq.ft.

$757/sq.ft.

2% increase in average dollar per square foot, probably statistically irrelevant.

Average Days on Market

43 days

63 days

Days on market have been increasing

Months supply / inventory

5.8 months

6.4 months

A relatively high level of inventory for SF, but not high by national rates.

# of 2/2 Condo Sales

70

58

17% reduction in sales reported to the MLS.

Median sales price for a 2/2 condo

$1,042,500

$966,500

Median price down 7.3%

Average $/sq.ft. for a 2/2 condo

$899/sq. ft.

$874/sq. ft.

3% decrease in average $/sq. ft. but still very high

% of sales pending within 30 days

33% at an average of 101% of LP

40% at an average of 98.9% of LP

The market is not as hot as it was in previous years, but it is not weak.   The opening of new condo developments has affected the supply/demand equation.

1/1/07 - 9/15/07

1/1/08 - 9/15/08

Analysis

Condo Sales

73

72

Virtually no change

Average $/sq.ft.

$603/sq.ft.

$601/sq.ft.

Hierarchy of values: South Beach at the top, then SOMA, then the Mission

Average Days on Market

49 days

63 days

Days on market have been increasing

Months supply / inventory

1.2 months

3.1 months

Inventory growing but still relatively low.

# of 2/2 Condo Sales

20

18

Small decrease

Median sales price for a 2/2 condo

$647,000

$680,000

5% increase, perhaps a reflection of the continued growth of the Mission

Average $/sq.ft. for a 2/2 condo

$575/sq. ft.

$607/sq. ft.

6% increase

1/1/07 - 9/15/07

1/1/08 - 9/15/08

Analysis

Condo Sales

8

15

27% of $2M+ condo sales in SF were in South Beach, SOMA and Mission Bay.

Average $/sq.ft.

$1510/sq.ft.

$1505/sq.ft.

Incredible $/sq. ft. figures in buildings like Four Seasons, St. Regis and Radiance.